Nagel Family Website

Wow… I just read that this guy over here reads my blog for stock picks! How cool is that??? Sure, I have a pretty good track record, and we use similar buy & sell techniques (wait for a %, sell the initial investment, keep the profits as another position in your portfolio), but now I feel bad that I haven’t said to buy something in a while.

My last picks were OXPS and PRAA on January 31st. I’m still holding both of them. At that time, I was watching TIVO and IRBT and have also bought both of those.

Results:
OXPS - up 9.84%
PRAA - up 31.11% (almost time to sell)
TIVO - down 3.05%
IRBT - up 18.38%

Since I don’t have cash on hand, I haven’t been looking to buy anything, but I am looking to sell PRAA and NTDOY. They’re both just about 30%.

So how do I pick? Well, I start with the Motley Fool Stock Advisor and Hidden Gems. I login & look for picks that are DOWN from when they were recommended. Example: OXPS

OXPS is down 14.64% since it was recommended in November, 2006. There may be a reason, though, so I look at more data. deminvest is smart, so he looks at P/E ratios, etc. etc. etc. I look at what other people think.

I have a little PHP script that I plug in a ticker symbol, and it returns lots of useful information. Example:

esnagel:~/temp> php stocks/index.php OXPS
Data on OXPS
tickerobj Object
(
[fLastTrade] => 25.76
[fRecThisWeek] => 1.9
[fRecLastWeek] => 1.9
[fMeanTarget] => 29.67
[nNoBrokers] => 6
[aSurprises] => Array
(
["Jun-06"] => 3.6
["Sep-06"] => 4.0
["Dec-06"] => 6.9
["Mar-07"] => -2.9
)

[nCaps] => 5
[nTotalOutperforms] => 803
[nTotalUnderperforms] => 23
[nAllStarOutperforms] => 290
[nAllStarUnderperforms] => 5
[nWallStOutperforms] => 3
[nWallStUnderperforms] => 0
)

So it was last traded at 25.76, and 6 brokers have an average target set at 29.67. So you can expect a 15% return. That’s what those 6 analysts think. It’s rated a 1.9 - 1.0 is strong buy, 5.0 is strong sell. 1.9 is pretty good.

They missed the analyst opinion by 3% in March of 2007, but exceeded it (slightly) three quarters before that.

The Caps rating is 5. That’s big - 5 is the best it gets. But don’t just look at Caps - who says what? 803 of 826 rate the stock Outperform. More importantly, though, 290 of 295 all stars and 3 of 3 Wall St. professionals rate it Outperform.

When I buy, I don’t buy more than 3% of my entire portfolio. I do this because I’m ready to buy a stock 3 times. If I put 3% in each time, I’m done at 9%, safely under the 10% rule.

I’ve done this with Starbucks, and would buy more but I’d be breaking my own rules. 16 brokers say SBUX will get to 38.34; it’s currently at 26.75. That’s a 43% return! Go buy SBUX.

I’ll work on getting a page up that shows my holdings, purchase price, and ROI. That way, you’ll know when I buy, and can make a decision on your own if you want to buy yourself.

This entry was posted on Thursday, June 28th, 2007 at 12:55 pm and is filed under Finance. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.